Pestilences of the 20th Century - Factors That Favor the Microbe

Who do health experts worry about future disease epidemics?  On reason is the growth of cities.  One hundred years ago, only about 15 percent of the world's population lived in cities. Forecasts estimate, however, that by the year 2010, over half  the world's population will live in urban areas, notably in the megacities of less-developed countries.

Infections agents flourish in densely populated areas. If a city has good housing as well as adequate sewage and water systems and good health care, the risk of epidemics is reduced. But the cities that growing fastest are those in poor countries. Some cities have only one toilet for every 750 or more people. Many urban areas also lack good housing and safe drinking water as well as medical facilities.  Where hundreds of thousands of people live jammed together in squalid conditions, the likelihood of disease transmission is greatly increased.

Does this mean that the epidemics of the future will be limited to overcrowded, poverty-stricken megacities?  The Journal of Internal Medicine answers:  "We must truly understand that pockets of abject poverty, economic  hopelessness, and their consequences provide the most fertile fields to sow infection and overwhelm the technology of the rest of humankind." 

It is not easy to confine disease in one area. Huge numbers of people are on the move. Each day about one million people cross international borders . Each week one million travel between rich  and poor countries. As people move, deadly microbes tag along with them.  The Journal of American Medical Association observes: "An outbreak of disease anywhere must now be perceived as a threat to most countries, and especially those that serve as major hubs of international travel.

Thus, despite the medical advances of the 20th century, pestilences continue to reap a harvest of human  lives, and many for the worst is yet to come.  But what does the Bible say about the future?

Infections disease remains the world's leading cause of death, killing over 50 billion people in 1996 alone.

Next time: Pestilences of the 20th Century - Antibiotics Resistence

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